Industry guilds and critics groups have already started bestowing their approval on the films of the year and a few frontrunners have emerged for the main events: the Golden Globes and Oscars.
The Hollywood Foreign Press-voted Golden Globes Awards will be announced on 12 January (Monday 13 January Australian time). On 16 January nominations for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences’ Oscars will be announced, though we will have to wait until Awards Night on 2 March for the winners.
But the difference between flirting with glory and taking home a shining statuette is huge in movie circles – so who will actually get the gongs?The gravitas of Gravity
There’s rarely such a thing as a certain winner; however hot on the heels of 11 BAFTA nominations, Alfonso Cuarón’s Gravity comes close in a crowded field. At the Golden Globes, it firms as favourite at the head of a competitive drama list; at the Oscars, a nomination is virtually guaranteed; success at both is a likely outcome. Cuarón’s chances of securing his first directing nomination – and award, too – are similarly strong, whilst 2010 recipient Sandra Bullock is a likely nominee for best actress.
12 Years a winner
Gravity’s fiercest competition comes in the form of Steve McQueen’s powerful portrait of slavery, as does Cuarón’s. Just as they share the drama category at the Golden Globes, so too will they share the spotlight come Oscars time – but, of course, only one can emerge victorious. 12 Years a Slave also boasts three considerable contenders in the acting stakes: lead Chiwetel Ejiofor and supports Michael Fassbender and Lupita Nyong’o. Performances may be where the film’s best fortunes lie, and rightfully so, all three worthy entrants in strong fields.
David O. Russell’s Hustle
In two films over three years, David O. Russell has guided six actors to nominations and three – The Fighter’s Christian Bale and Melissa Leo, and Silver Linings Playbook’s Jennifer Lawrence – to trophies, all while collecting his own nods for direction. His streak is likely to continue, with American Hustle channeling its enjoyable con hijinks into widespread awards recognition, particularly for repeat offenders Bale and Lawrence. Only an upset – in a packed category, but filled with films with less momentum – would see Hustle miss out on the best comedy Golden Globe.
Any love for Llewyn?
In most years, it would be unthinkable: a Coen brothers’ film, especially one as astute as the wryly comic, warmly sorrowful, folk scene-set Inside Llewyn Davis, potentially missing out on an Oscar nomination. This year, it may become a reality, in a serious but no less possible oversight unlikely to be lessened by Golden Globes glory. Instead, another Oscar – lead actor Oscar Isaac – may carry the torch where the film itself and its helmers might fall short, with a potential comedy Globes win and an Oscars nomination. A best original song nod or several is also a chance, potentially making a nominee out of Justin Timberlake.
The crowning of Cate
Since Blue Jasmine first reached screens, buzz has raged around Cate Blanchett’s titular performance. Now, as recognition mounts amongst critics’ bodies, the din is no less audible. Heavyweights in the form of Philomena’s Judi Dench, Saving Mr. Banks’ Emma Thompson and August: Osage County’s Meryl Streep may sit among her competition; however Blanchett’s challenging character work soars above the rest of the pack. Her director and Jasmine’s creator, Woody Allen, is also a fair chance for a best original screenplay Oscar nomination, despite missing out at the Golden Globes.
Leo’s lack of luck
After being overlooked even for a nomination last year for his stellar and surprising turn in Django Unchained, Leonardo DiCaprio’s absence of Oscars success became its own story. With just three shots at the statue on his resume to date despite the quality of his output, he might be in for more of the same, particularly in a strong year for male lead performances that sees Robert Redford (All is Lost) and Joaquin Phoenix (Her) vying for the same spot. Hope remains that his excess-driven efforts in The Wolf of Wall Street will see his name listed among the final five, adding to his Golden Globes nod. Of course, there’s always The Great Gatsby, his other recent offering.
Age matters
For the second year running, age matters, especially in the case of Nebraska’s Bruce Dern and June Squibb. At 77 and 84 respectively, both veteran performers are eliciting the type of attention largely unseen for both: Dern has a smattering of nominations to his name but not for decades, whilst Squibb is an awards newcomer. Both could win at the Golden Globes, and will likely receive Oscar recognitiom. Their film’s odds also shape up an inclusion among the Academy’s picks, as does director Alexander Payne. Alas, the excellent Will Forte doesn’t appear to be as fortunate for his nuanced against-type performance.
Around the world
Only two overlaps exists between the five Golden Globes best foreign-language film nominees and the nine films that made the Oscar shortlist, as much a product of different qualifying rules as differing tastes of each organization. The Great Beauty and The Hunt are excellent candidates for both, though The Past or Blue is the Warmest Colour may triumph at the Globes; The Broken Circle Breakdown and The Grandmaster may join the fold at the Oscars. For the Academy, however, the true best foreign-language film might be crowned in a different category: best documentary, to Joshua Oppenheimer’s striking, stunning The Act of Killing.
The inevitably undersung
Only a few can earn recognition at the highest level, and even those favoured by the Golden Globes can be overlooked by the Oscars. Globes nominees Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha), Julia Louis-Dreyfuss (Enough Said), Julie Delpy (Before Midnight) and Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) may end up sans Globes statue and Oscar nod – but there’s many other deserving would-be contenders that won’t make it that far. Spring Breakers’ James Franco and Short Term 12’s Brie Larson rank among the most deserving to likely miss out, and The Wolf of Wall Street’s Martin Scorsese and Her’s Spike Jonze – and their films – may join them. Conversely, Dallas Buyers Club duo Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto seem set to crystalise their revitalized careers, Oscars nominations building upon Golden Globes nods, both of which just years ago were inconceivable.