The megatrends, identified by CSIRO trend analyst Stefan Hajkowicz, are a major shift in the cultural, economic, social, environmental and technological milieu that are expected to radically change the context of everything we do over the next 20 years.
Some of the trends go to the very nature of why people go to museums, galleries or arts events. They raise the possibility that museums, galleries and theatres could replace shops as the ‘third place’ where people congregate. Others will change the processes by which our organisations operate and the subjects on which we focus.
Dr Hajkowicz said while some changes were ‘black swans’ – phenomena never seen until a major change of environment – many were more like a ‘kangaroo in the headlights’, who sees the car coming but remains frozen. He gave the example of Eastman Kodak, which was involved in the development of the digital camera in 1975 but failed to change its business model from dependence on film and filed for bankruptcy in 2011.
1. Great Expectations
The trend of greatest interest to arts organisations is what Hajkowicz calls Great Expectations. His analysis shows an increasing demand for individual, authentic and social experiences. The ‘experience factor’ is now a highly marketable commodity and will become more so as incidental social or sensory contact is replaced by virtual connection.
Hajkowicz says people are no longer just buying a cup of coffee. They want to know whether it is fair trade or what other ‘feel-good factor’ comes with it. ‘This experiential aspect is really important for the museums sector because the whole experience package is what people are investing in and wanting to see a lot more of.’
Museums Victoria CEO Patrick Greene, who gave a response to Hajkowicz’s paper at the conference, said there was tremendous potential for museums to meet this growing demand. ‘The Great Expectations trend is perfect for us. It explores the rising demand for experiences and products more personalised, better and faster services and the importance of social relationships. These are areas in which museums are actively providing a sense of belonging, social connectedness and unique experiences.’
2. Virtually Here
Closely connected – and part of what is leading the push for experience is another trend called Virtually Here. This megatrend identifies the rise of computerisation in every aspect from social communication to online shopping to tele-working. Hajkowicz said online retail is now about 10% of turnover but was growing rapidly and there was a real question of whether shops would exist in the future.
He said the demise of retail presented a particular opportunity for museums and other arts spaces. ‘In the museum sector there’s this interesting question: if people stop going to shops in the future, what’s their third space between the office and home? Is it going to become museums and libraries and public spaces because we don’t have to go to these places, we go there for the experience factor?’
Greene said digitisation was a megatrend of enormous consequence for the museum sector and was already being well-harnessed. ‘Museums have been very adept at harnessing the power of technology and we will continue to do that in the future.’
But museumgeek blogger and PhD student Suse Cairns said there was huge potential in digitisation which many people within the sector were uncomfortable about tapping.
Referring to the work of Chicago-based company Narrative Science, she asked if algorithms could be used to deliver personalised stories and narratives about every object in a collection.
Museums could also become involved in online curation and needed to address difficult questions such as ‘How do we collect Facebook?’
3. Forever Young
The key demographic megatrend identified by the CSIRO team is called Forever Young and analyses the effects of our ageing population. Currently 13% of the Australian population is over the age of 65; by 2050 it will be 24%. Increasing rates of chronic illness and burgeoning health costs are one result of this trend.
There are also marked economic shortfalls, which are likely to change the whole concept of retirement and with it the audience and volunteering behaviour formerly associated with the over-60s.
Hajkowicz said we are about one trillion dollars short in retirement savings, suggesting there will be longer working lives and possibly the abolition of retirement.
Greene said museums needed to be involving older people in their programs in new ways. Older people provided a wealth of skills, knowledge, wisdom and mentorship but, as the ‘forever young’ tag indicates they do not want to be provided with ‘oldies only’ opportunities.
‘Where would we be without older people as members in our volunteer teams? But of course one of the reasons they join is to work with younger people so the breadth of recruitment across our volunteers is a vital part of this as well. We do need to recognise and act upon the demographic changes that we have heard about in order to adapt what we do to an ageing population and it’s going to be a major preoccupation, I’m sure.’
4. Silk Highway
A global economic megatrend is the movement of wealth and power into the developing world.
‘The whole world economy is shifting from West to East,’ says Hajkowicz, noting the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are reshaping global economic output. He said in 1990 60% of the global economic output was from the developed world and 40% from the developing world, by 2010 it was half and half and by 2030 it would be 60/40 in the other direction.
Greene said museums were well along the ‘silk highway’, having been building relationships for quarter of a century. He said it was important Australia did not just import exhibitions from the developing regions but also provided cultural contacts to them.
‘The Silk Highway is a more elegant phrase than The Asian Century and it aptly describes the blossoming of contacts between cultural organisations in Australia and our neighbours to the north. Museums are also a key ingredient in Australia’s attractiveness to tourists in an industry that offers great scope for growth.’
Other megatrends may have less direct effect on the functioning of arts organisations but offer opportunities for content and an important context.
5. More From Less
This trend identifies the declining availability and increasing demand for a range of resources from protein foods to energy consumption. Hajkowicz said the imbalance is partly a result of human populations but also of ‘literally billions of people globally transitioning into the middle classes’ with commensurate demand for resources.
Greene noted the depletion of resources posed numerous questions about how we live our future lives. ‘Surely these are ideal territory for museums to explore utilising our sense of historical change and trusted status in public debate.’
6. Going, going, gone
Similarly Going, going, gone is the tagline for the trend that describes the world’s shrinking biodiversity. ‘It’s based on a paper published in an American journal PMIS, which shows that the coming decades are going to set the scene for the coming millennia in terms of biodiversity because we have so many species on the brink of extinction and so many pressures bearing down upon them,’ says Hajkowicz.
The good news part of this trend is greater activity and investment in environmental conservation than ever before, a trend with clear potential for organisations engaged in these activities.
Greene said many museums of natural history were already highly active in this sphere through both research and communication and there were ‘real opportunities for encouraging the human response to the loss of species’.
